Dallas Mavericks

Methodology:

Find the average Win Shares per draft position from 1980 (Mavs first draft season) to today. Adjust the averages by applying a logarithmic regression. Find the average amount of Games Played per draft position. Adjust the averages similar to the Win Shares. A player is expected to play 65 games per year up until the average amount of games played per draft position. Divide the Win Shares by count of Games Played to get the Average Win Shares Per Game. Find the average and smooth out via a logarithmic regression. For each draft pick made by the current team, multiply the expected amount of Games Played by the Average Adjusted Win Shares Per Game to get the Expected Win Shares for that draft pick. Divide the Actual Win Shares of the draft pick by the Expected Win Shares to get the percentage of actual to estimate Win Shares. This is the Draft Pick Rating.

Examples: Tim Duncan (#1 pick in 1997) has a rating of 3.35. George Hill (#26 pick in 2008) has a rating of 9.51. This does not mean George Hill is “better” than Tim Duncan. It means Duncan has about 3.35 times more win shares as expected from a #1 pick. Hill has 9.51 times more win shares than expected for the #26 pick.